Michelle Steiner

It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.

-- Michelle

<http://seekingalpha.com/article/3183...-up-from-26-to
-43>

According to a new report from research firm NPD, iOS’s U.S. market share
(by sales) jumped from 26% in the third quarter of 2011 to 43% by October
and November. Android, however, came out on top, with 47% market share
during those two months, down from 60% in Q3.

Says NPD, over the course of 2011, the smartphone battle saw iOS and
Android distancing themselves from the competition, turning it into “a
two-horse race.�

Overall, smartphone sales continue to grow, NPD says, and accounted for two
out of every three handsets sold in October/November 2011. For comparison
purposes, that’s up from 50% in Q4 2010.

In addition, nine of the top ten phones sold in Oct/Nov are smartphones,
with Samsung, HTC and Motorla each having at least one smartphone listed in
NPD’s top ten. Apple’s phones are on the top of the list, with the iPhone
4S in the number one spot and the iPhone 4 still doing well in the #2
position.

--
Tea Party Patriots is to Patriotism as
People's Democratic Republic is to Democracy.

JF Mezei

Michelle Steiner wrote:
> It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.



For now, one should not dismiss the Nokia/Microsoft phones that should
be coming out this year.

Since Nokia has bet its life on that marriage with Microsoft, it may go
all out to try to regain some of its former glory/market share. If it
pans out, Nokia may carve itself a big enough slice of the marlet.

If it fizzles out, Nokia could go out of business, or perhaps quickly
move to Android.


So either way, Nokia could means bad news for Apple's market share,
unless Nokia declares bankrupcy after its semi-marriage with Microsoft
fails. (if it fails).


The bigger question is what sort of long term market share should Apple
expect to have ? 20% ? 15% ? 30% ? or will it be able to maintain itself
above 40% ?

Chris Blunt

On Mon, 09 Jan 2012 14:14:37 -0700, Michelle Steiner
<michelle@michelle.org> wrote:

>It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.

I hope not.

I'd prefer to see an ongoing competitive market situation in which
several players are able to thrive, rather than having one knock the
others out and establish a dominant market position for themselves.

Chris

Jon Ribbens

On 2012-01-10, Chris Blunt <mail@nospam.com> wrote:
> On Mon, 09 Jan 2012 14:14:37 -0700, Michelle Steiner
><michelle@michelle.org> wrote:
>
>>It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.
>
> I hope not.
>
> I'd prefer to see an ongoing competitive market situation in which
> several players are able to thrive, rather than having one knock the
> others out and establish a dominant market position for themselves.

Indeed; I think that the smartphone market so far has been a perfect
example of free market competition working brilliantly. I wouldn't
want any of the major players to "win".

nospam

In article <slrnjgp00j.ap7.jon+usenet@snowy.squish.net>, Jon Ribbens
<jon+usenet@unequivocal.co.uk> wrote:

> >>It's neck and neck; may the better horse win.
> >
> > I hope not.
> >
> > I'd prefer to see an ongoing competitive market situation in which
> > several players are able to thrive, rather than having one knock the
> > others out and establish a dominant market position for themselves.
>
> Indeed; I think that the smartphone market so far has been a perfect
> example of free market competition working brilliantly. I wouldn't
> want any of the major players to "win".

two have already won. ios and android will be dominant for a while and
it's highly unlikely that is going to change anytime soon.

windows phone might manage a distant third. webos is all but dead and
rim/blackberry is quickly headed in that direction. symbian, meego etc.
are long forgotten.

cameras are similar. nikon and canon are the two dominant manufacturers
with roughly 80% share between the two and the remaining 20% is shared
by sony, pentax, olympus, panasonic, leica, hassleblad, etc.

JF Mezei

nospam wrote:

> two have already won. ios and android will be dominant for a while and
> it's highly unlikely that is going to change anytime soon.


I am not sure that Apple will remain dominant. Consider how quickly
Android grew it could continue to grow and make Apple a niche market in
a few years. Or both could remain near equals in market share. (which
would be better from competition and innovation point of view).


And again, don't dismiss Microsoft an RIM *yet*.


Both are expected to have product renewall this year, and both are
probably "make it or die" situation. So depending on how those two turn
things around, things could become different.

nospam

In article <4f0c96a4$0$5486$c3e8da3$eb767761@news.astraweb.co m>, JF
Mezei <jfmezei.spamnot@vaxination.ca> wrote:

> > two have already won. ios and android will be dominant for a while and
> > it's highly unlikely that is going to change anytime soon.
>
> I am not sure that Apple will remain dominant. Consider how quickly
> Android grew it could continue to grow and make Apple a niche market in
> a few years. Or both could remain near equals in market share. (which
> would be better from competition and innovation point of view).

people seem to think it's going to be a repeat of windows and mac,
where one has 90% share and the other has almost nothing. that's not
likely to happen for a number of reasons. there's room for two players,
just as there is with cameras and many other products.

> And again, don't dismiss Microsoft an RIM *yet*.

i heard that last year and the year before that. unless they can work
miracles, the game is pretty much over.

rim isn't dead *yet* because of the large existing install base but
they are not doing particularly well. the playbook was a disaster and
i've yet to meet anyone who really likes their blackberry. everyone i
know who has a blackberry wants an iphone or android phone. that's not
good.

microsoft has a decent product but it's too little too late. they
currently have a single digit market share and it's going to be nearly
impossible to catch up to android or ios, let alone overtake either
one. they'll probably be a distant 3rd in a 3 player game.

> Both are expected to have product renewall this year, and both are
> probably "make it or die" situation. So depending on how those two turn
> things around, things could become different.

they need a miracle. although that's not impossible, it's also not very
likely.

salgud

On Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:50:58 -0500, JF Mezei wrote:

> And again, don't dismiss Microsoft an RIM *yet*.

Why not? M$ hasn't had a successful consumer product in 10 years. They've
been so busy emulating Apple, which they're not, that they have no identity
any more. Their CEO is a natural follower, not a leader.

As to RIM, I seriously doubt they have the where-with-all to actually
design a competitive smartphone. If they did, they would have done so by
now. They just don't get it.

Neither of these companies can innovate. Not a good thing in the modern
cellphone market. We'll see in a few years if Apple can still innovate.
I'll be happily surprised if they can.

I predict that within 5 years, someone else, hitherto unknown, will come
and blow them all out of the water.

Michelle Steiner

In article <4f0c96a4$0$5486$c3e8da3$eb767761@news.astraweb.co m>,
JF Mezei <jfmezei.spamnot@vaxination.ca> wrote:

> > two have already won. ios and android will be dominant for a while and
> > it's highly unlikely that is going to change anytime soon.
>
>
> I am not sure that Apple will remain dominant. Consider how quickly
> Android grew it could continue to grow and make Apple a niche market in
> a few years.

In the last quarter, the iPhone gained market share and Android lost market
share, to the point that Android's market share was only one percent
greater than the iPhone's.

Considering how many phone manufacturers make Android phones and how many
models of Android phones there are compared to iOS's one manufacturer and
only three current models, that's quite impressive.

--
Tea Party Patriots is to Patriotism as
People's Democratic Republic is to Democracy.

JF Mezei

nospam wrote:

> people seem to think it's going to be a repeat of windows and mac,
> where one has 90% share and the other has almost nothing. that's not
> likely to happen for a number of reasons.

Apple opened the mass market for smart phones. It had a near monopoly.
Now, as others are moving in, it is normal for Apple to lose market share.

It is still to early to tell at what point Apple's market share will
stabilize.


If Apple's ahare goes down too much, it risks losing critical mass at
which point, apps will move elsewhere (just like what happened to the
Mac in the 1980s). Apple is nowhere near that point now. But what about
3-5 years from now ?






> rim isn't dead *yet* because of the large existing install base but
> they are not doing particularly well.

RIM is promising a totally new set of phones and OS this year. This is
their last chance to revive the company, otherwise they will be
relegated to running their proprietary servers to service existing
customers (whose phones cannot do any data without those proprietary RIM
servers).


Nokia is also promising a totally new set of (windows) phones this year.
It is also make or break for them. Back in the days of analogue phones,
Nokia managed to oust Motorola from a "near monopoly" and it became the
dominant player in the world. But Nokia seems to have inept maagement
now, so the odds of them succeeding are not great. But there is still a
chance.

And don't discount Sony. Big picture: Apple is after Sony's business.
Snoy is the one company who has understood convergence. Yet, they are
the one company who had all the bits to make a truly integrated product
line and failed to do so due to bad corporate managemenT/structure. But
should they fix this, they are the ones who can tackle Apple head to head.

Sony recently got full control over the mobile handset (they are going
to be Sony handsets instead of Sony Ericsson). What if Sony leverages
Android and makes a truly compelling product ?



A year from now, things should get much clearer. It could very well
turn out as a 3 way market with 30% of the market going to Mcrosoft and
RIM. This would mean that Apple and Google would get 70% of the market.
But consider the difference between a 35-35 split or a 30-40 split or
25-34 split. It doesn't take much to et Apple into a niche player.

I have my doubts on whether Apple can continue to have equal market
share to a whole slew of major Android manufacturers such as Samsung,
LG, HTC, Sony and perhaps even Motorola).